Artificial intelligence is driving a massive surge in computing power across the United States, a development that has prompted researchers to investigate how carbon capture and storage could help curb data center emissions. Published in Energy & Fuels, a new study estimates that US data center power capacity could expand from 40 gigawatts in 2025 to 169 gigawatts by 2030. This represents a more than fourfold increase in just five years. The researchers warn that without new strategies, the carbon dioxide produced by fossil fuel power plants supplying this electricity could rise from roughly 90 million metric tons annually in 2025 to over 404 million metric tons by 2030.
Rapid Growth in Key States
The study, conducted by Hon Chung Lau, an adjunct professor at Rice University, and Steve C. Tsai, an energy transition consultant, analyzed publicly available data on announced US data centers. They looked at projected power capacity, energy sources, and locations. Their findings point to rapid growth in several states, including Texas, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Arizona, Colorado, Utah, and Illinois. Texas alone would need to add approximately 25 gigawatts of power capacity by 2030 to meet projected demand. Because data centers require highly reliable, around-the-clock electricity, the authors suggest natural gas combined cycle power plants equipped with carbon capture and storage may offer a practical near-term pathway for providing low-carbon power.
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Natural gas is abundant in the US, gas-fired plants emit less carbon dioxide than coal-fired plants, and many major data center growth areas are located near underground saline aquifers that could be used for long-term carbon storage. The researchers found that 34 states have enough saline aquifer storage capacity to hold more than 100 years of projected data center-related carbon dioxide emissions beyond 2030. In 2025, those aquifers could store an estimated 59 million metric tons of data center-related carbon dioxide, which accounts for about 66% of the sector’s emissions. By 2030, that number could grow to 299 million metric tons, or roughly 74% of projected emissions.
Wider Implications for the Energy Sector
When out-of-state storage options are included, the researchers found that more than 90% of data center-related carbon dioxide emissions could potentially be mitigated through carbon capture and storage. This geologic potential offers a significant buffer for the region as it undergoes a digital transformation. The authors note that their estimates are conservative because they included only data centers with publicly announced power requirements. In addition, they also assumed that when companies did not specify a power source, electricity would come from the state grid and that each state’s energy mix would remain constant through 2030.
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“The AI economy will require enormous amounts of energy,” Lau says. “Our study helps identify where that demand is growing, where emissions are likely to rise, and where carbon storage could help.” The study provides a state-by-state framework for balancing digital infrastructure growth with climate goals. It suggests that while carbon capture is not the only solution, the geology exists to make a meaningful impact, particularly in states where data center growth is strongest.